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This long-time PickHoops feature shows your best possible finish.
This analysis starts after the first weekend of games and continues
throughout the tournament.

Best Results Standings for group madness

See the bottom of this page for an explanation of this table.

All tiebreakers are included in this analysis up to any tiebreaker based on the final game's score.
Complete information on PickHoops tiebreakers can be found here.

11 games remainingMust wins for best finish

(38 total)


Super SixteenExciting EightFinal FewChampion
1 (53)Colby Ranch1 (25.9%)21 (<1%)
2 (52)Carl Elliot1 (22.3%)11 (1%)
3 (51)Amy Baker1 (6.1%)14 (<1%) OhioSt OhioSt OhioSt
4 (49)Stephen Crandall #21 (6.2%)29 (1%) Baylor WVU
5 (49)Maury Baker3 (4.2%)19 (<1%) Butler Kentky
6 (48)Kurt Locker1 (8.5%)23 (<1%)
7 (48)Chris Staley4 (<1%)23 (1.3%) Tenn Duke Butler Kentky Duke Kentky
8 (47)Mary Crowley #21 (17.2%)18 (<1%)
9 (47)Kris Kidwell1 (7.6%)24 (<1%) Duke Duke Duke
10 (47)Mark Blanda6 (1.5%)26 (<1%) OhioSt StMary Butler Kentky
11 (47)Lauren Lash3 (12.8%)21 (<1%) Kentky Kentky
12 (46)Chris Hitman2 (2.6%)32 (1.2%) StMary WVU WVU
13 (45)John Cargill5 (<1%)32 (1.6%) Tenn StMary KansSt Kentky Kentky
14 (44)Krista Crandall2 (<1%)28 (<1%) Tenn Duke Baylor Butler Kentky Duke Duke
15 (44)Doug Peartree5 (<1%)31 (5.9%) Tenn Duke Butler Kentky Duke Duke
16 (43)Matt Hooper1 (4.2%)33 (<1%) OhioSt OhioSt
17 (43)Risky Rowell7 (<1%)32 (1%) Tenn Duke Baylor WVU Duke Duke
18 (43)Risky Rowell #22 (2.8%)34 (1.6%) Duke Duke DukeDuke
19 (43)Lonnie Gibson2 (1.4%)30 (<1%) Duke Duke DukeDuke
20 (43)Stephen Crandall3 (<1%)34 (2.3%) OhioSt Baylor Butler Baylor Baylor
21 (43)John Roberts4 (8.5%)28 (7%) Kentky KentkyKentky
22 (42)Mary Crowley1 (1.2%)34 (1.2%)MichSt MichSt Butler MichSt
23 (42)Carl Elliot #26 (<1%)35 (3.1%) Tenn Duke StMary WVU Duke Duke
24 (42)Eddie Dubner2 (<1%)34 (2.3%) Tenn Purdue Baylor KansSt Kentky Baylor Kentky
25 (42)Phil Harrison12 (<1%)35 (3.1%)N.Iowa OhioSt StMary Butler WVU
25 (42)Mike Crasher9 (<1%)34 (1.6%) OhioSt StMary Butler Kentky Kentky
27 (42)Tobey DeLuca #12 (<1%)33 (13.3%) Tenn Duke StMary Butler Kentky Duke DukeDuke
28 (41)Tobey DeLuca #29 (<1%)32 (9.4%) Duke Butler Kentky Duke Kentky
29 (41)John Cargill #23 (1.4%)33 (3.1%) Baylor Butler WVU WVU
30 (41)Fred Allman10 (<1%)33 (9.4%) OhioSt Duke Butler Kentky Duke Kentky
31 (40)Denise Rogers1 (1%)33 (7.8%) OhioSt OhioSt OhioSt OhioSt
32 (39)Denise Rogers #23 (<1%)35 (3.1%) Tenn Duke Baylor Butler WVU Baylor Baylor
33 (37)Cleve Clancy8 (2.4%)36 (15.6%) Butler Kentky KentkyKentky
34 (36)Krista Crandall #26 (1.2%)36 (15.6%) Tenn Baylor Butler WVU Baylor WVU
35 (35)Kurt Locker #27 (<1%)37 (7.8%) Tenn Duke StMary Butler Kentky Duke KentkyKentky
36 (34)Dinah Elliot #26 (<1%)37 (18.8%) Tenn Duke Baylor Butler WVU Duke DukeDuke
37 (31)Fred Allman Risky34 (6.3%)37 (73.4%) Tenn Purdue KansSt WVU
38 (22)Dinah Elliot38 (100%)38 (100%)

What this analysis means

After the second round, there are 16 teams remaining, and 32,768 possible ways the tournament can play out. Each possible way the tournament can play out is called a scenario. PickHoops calculates your finishing position for each of these scenarios. Then we display your best and worst possible finishes on this page.

This analysis is run after every day's games, starting the day the Surviving 16 is decided. It is not run earlier since the number of scenarios increases, well, exponentially! If we were to run the analysis after the first round, we would have to process 2,147,483,648 scenarios (that's over 2 BILLION).

After each round, there are fewer ways the tournament can play out. So you should check back after each day's games to see if your best and worst finishes have been updated.

Explanation of chances

The "chance" percentage in the Best Finish column refers to the number of scenarios where you achieve your best finish versus all possible scenarios. The same applies for the Worst Finish column. This percentage considers all possible remaining tournament outcomes to be equally likely.

The percentages are rounded prior to display. If you notice the Best or Worst percentages for your group do not add up to 100, it is probably due to rounding.

This analysis considers sole possession of a finishing spot to be better than a tie for the same spot. So if you win the pool outright in two scenarios (of eight) and tie for the top spot in one scenario, you will be listed as having a 25% chance of achieving your best finish.

Must wins explanation

As we said before, there are 32,768 playout scenarios after the Scintillating 16 is decided. Let's say you would achieve your best finish in 768 of those scenarios. If Team X wins in a particular round in all 768 of those scenarios, that team and round is listed as one of your "Must wins." You cannot achieve your best finish unless Team X wins that game.

In this example, there are 32,000 remaining scenarios where you do *not* achieve your best finish. In some of these, Team X wins that game. So, even if Team X wins a "Must win" game, you might not achieve your best finish. You must check back after every day's games to see if your best finish and "Must wins" for later rounds have been updated. You might find that you have new "Must wins" not listed before!

If multiple teams and rounds are listed, these teams must win all the games in the listed rounds for you to achieve your best finish.

If the column is blank, you have no "Must wins" for a particular round - yet. A blank column is good to see for today's round. But if you have a blank column listed for a later round, check back after today's round - there might be a "Must win" due to results of today's games.

If "N/A" is listed, the round has already been played, and is not included in "Must wins" analysis.