All tiebreakers are included in this analysis up to any tiebreaker based on the final game's score. Complete information on PickHoops tiebreakers can be found here.
| 7 games remaining | Must wins for best finish | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current rank (score) | Player (30 total) | Best finish (chance) | Worst finish (chance) | Super Sixteen | Exciting Eight | Final Few | Champion |
| 1 (63) | 1 (7.8%) | 13 (3.1%) | Texas GeoMas | ||||
| 2 (62) | 1 (14.1%) | 11 (2.3%) | Fla. | ||||
| 3 (61) | 1 (15.6%) | 12 (3.1%) | Texas | Texas | |||
| 4 (60) | 1 (6.3%) | 19 (2.3%) | UCLA Vlnova | UCLA | |||
| 5 (60) | 1 (12.5%) | 14 (3.1%) | UCLA | UCLA | |||
| 6 (59) | 2 (6.3%) | 16 (3.1%) | UConn Vlnova | ||||
| 7 (58) | 6 (1.6%) | 18 (3.1%) | Texas Memphs UConn Fla. | Texas Fla. | |||
| 8 (58) | 1 (12.5%) | 22 (3.1%) | LSU | LSU | |||
| 9 (58) | 1 (1.6%) | 18 (6.3%) | LSU Memphs GeoMas Fla. | Memphs GeoMas | |||
| 10 (57) | 1 (1.6%) | 18 (10.2%) | Texas Memphs GeoMas Vlnova | Texas | Texas | ||
| 11 (57) | 1 (12.5%) | 19 (3.1%) | Vlnova | Vlnova | |||
| 12 (56) | 1 (5.5%) | 20 (4.7%) | LSU Memphs Vlnova | ||||
| 13 (56) | 4 (3.1%) | 20 (2.3%) | Texas UCLA UConn | UCLA | |||
| 14 (56) | 7 (6.3%) | 20 (7%) | Texas Memphs GeoMas Fla. | ||||
| 15 (55) | 11 (3.1%) | 20 (14.1%) | Memphs UConn Fla. | Fla. | |||
| 16 (55) | 1 (10.2%) | 16 (12.5%) | UConn | ||||
| 17 (53) | 3 (<1%) | 19 (3.1%) | Texas Memphs UConn Vlnova | Memphs Vlnova | Memphs | ||
| 18 (52) | 9 (1.6%) | 22 (1.6%) | LSU Memphs UConn Vlnova | UConn | |||
| 19 (51) | 11 (1.6%) | 23 (25%) | LSU UCLA GeoMas Vlnova | LSU Vlnova | |||
| 20 (51) | 15 (3.1%) | 24 (12.5%) | LSU Memphs GeoMas Vlnova | GeoMas | |||
| 21 (50) | 5 (2.3%) | 27 (6.3%) | Memphs UConn | Memphs UConn | UConn | ||
| 22 (49) | 8 (1.6%) | 26 (6.3%) | Texas Memphs UConn Fla. | Memphs Fla. | |||
| 23 (49) | 18 (6.3%) | 26 (37.5%) | LSU UCLA GeoMas Fla. | ||||
| 24 (48) | 20 (6.3%) | 27 (37.5%) | LSU UCLA GeoMas Fla. | ||||
| 25 (47) | 15 (3.1%) | 27 (12.5%) | Texas Memphs GeoMas Fla. | Memphs | |||
| 26 (46) | 21 (3.1%) | 27 (18.8%) | LSU Memphs GeoMas Vlnova | LSU | |||
| 27 (46) | 21 (6.3%) | 27 (25%) | Texas UCLA GeoMas Vlnova | ||||
| 28 (43) | 28 (50%) | 29 (50%) | Fla. | ||||
| 29 (42) | 28 (50%) | 29 (50%) | Vlnova | ||||
| 30 (37) | 30 (100%) | 30 (100%) | |||||
This analysis is run after every day's games, starting the day the Surviving 16 is decided. It is not run earlier since the number of scenarios increases, well, exponentially! If we were to run the analysis after the first round, we would have to process 2,147,483,648 scenarios (that's over 2 BILLION).
After each round, there are fewer ways the tournament can play out. So you should check back after each day's games to see if your best and worst finishes have been updated.
The percentages are rounded prior to display. If you notice the Best or Worst percentages for your group do not add up to 100, it is probably due to rounding.
This analysis considers sole possession of a finishing spot to be better than a tie for the same spot. So if you win the pool outright in two scenarios (of eight) and tie for the top spot in one scenario, you will be listed as having a 25% chance of achieving your best finish.
In this example, there are 32,000 remaining scenarios where you do *not* achieve your best finish. In some of these, Team X wins that game. So, even if Team X wins a "Must win" game, you might not achieve your best finish. You must check back after every day's games to see if your best finish and "Must wins" for later rounds have been updated. You might find that you have new "Must wins" not listed before!
If multiple teams and rounds are listed, these teams must win all the games in the listed rounds for you to achieve your best finish.
If the column is blank, you have no "Must wins" for a particular round - yet. A blank column is good to see for today's round. But if you have a blank column listed for a later round, check back after today's round - there might be a "Must win" due to results of today's games.
If "N/A" is listed, the round has already been played, and is not included in "Must wins" analysis.